6th Asia-Pacific Base Oil, Lubricant & Grease Conference: Fan Cheuk Wan

6th Asia-Pacific Base OIl, Lubricant & Grease Conference 2012 Asian Economic Outlook Fan Cheuk Wan Managing Director Head of Research Asia Pacific Private Banking Abstract Looking back at 2011, fears of inflation, asset bubble risk and policy tightening were the key macro concerns in Asia. Looking ahead, we see reduced tail risk of a disorderly Greek debt default and EMU (European Economic and Monetary Union) break-up while the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is expected to muddle through in 2012. Asia is impacted by Europe via two main channels: the financial and the economic effects. On financial contagion, we think that the impact can be contained due to very limited exposure of Asian banks and institutions to peripheral sovereign debt in Europe. On the economic effects, Europe accounts for about 11% of total demand for Asian exports, but only 4% stems from peripheral Europe. Asian growth is expected to remain relatively resilient as compared with the advanced economies due to the higher fiscal flexibility of the Asian countries to take policy responses to mitigate growth risks. China’s soft landing, recent improvement in the US labor market and manufacturing activities and stabilization in the Euro debt crisis are supportive drivers for the Asian economy in 2012. With domestic growth moderating, inflation easing and external demand weakening substantially, Asia has entered into a monetary easing cycle as central banks are taking counter-cyclical measures to mitigate

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